Ripley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS65 KPSR 061741
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1041 AM MST Sun Jul 6 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures return, with many lower desert
  locations hovering close to 110 degrees this afternoon

- Further warming, and generally dry conditions, are expected
  into next week with highs around 115 degrees for lower desert
  locations by Wednesday

- Rising temperatures will result in widespread Major HeatRisk,
  prompting the issuance of Extreme Heat Watches for much the
  region between Tuesday and Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Morning 500mb RAP analysis reveals sub-tropical high pressure
continuing to build across the southwestern CONUS while a weak
disturbance spins off the California Coast. These two features
will have a brief period of interaction, with the latter feature
helping to keep the westward progression of the former at bay, at
least temporarily. With the high being the dominant of the two
features, its regional influence will be greater and will continue
to help the promotion of the increasing temperatures. Even with
heights aloft projected to be slightly lower (591-593dm) compared
to where they were yesterday (593-595dm), typically signaling at
least steady, if not slightly cooler, day-to-day temperature
variations, an increase in 850mb temperatures will be why this
warmup continues. Forecasted highs this afternoon are expected to
return to above-normal levels, with many locations across the
lower deserts hovering around 110 degrees.

By Monday, the aforementioned high will start to force its will
on the Pacific Low and resume its migration further over the
Desert Southwest, eroding the trough and keeping it well north of
our forecast area. In turn, very little, if any, changes in
conditions are expected heading into the start of next week.
Temperatures Monday afternoon for lower elevation locations will
range between 106-112 degrees. Any rain chances over the state
during the near- term will be focused over southeastern Arizona as
moisture profiles across most of the region remain underwhelming
for robust and widespread monsoon related convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models continue to remain in excellent agreement regarding the
spatial progression of the sub-tropical ridge during the remainder
of the upcoming week. With projections continuing to show further
enhancement of this feature (heights pushing 597-599dm) and it
eventually becoming parked virtually right on top of Arizona and
southern California, conditions will remain hot and dry through
this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to rise and peak on
Wednesday, where lower desert highs will hover around 115 degrees,
resulting in widespread Major HeatRisk. In turn, an Extreme Heat
Watch was issued for portions of the region (Phoenix metro and
surrounding areas) Tuesday, while most of south-central and
southwestern Arizona, along with southeastern California, will
join in on the watch Wednesday. These products will initially last
until Thursday (except for higher terrain zones east of Phoenix
which last just for Wednesday), but some uncertainty in
temperature forecasts may limit the temporal extent of a future
Extreme Heat Warning to just Wednesday as well for those areas in
southwestern AZ and southeast CA. The one caveat is a projected
low-level moisture increase, thanks to a surge from the Gulf of
California, may limit daytime heating. However, the added moisture
will push heat indices upward, making the ambient temps Wednesday
and apparent temps Thursday about equal. Height anomalies are
shown decreasing toward the end of the week, indicating a the
potential for a slight cooldown, but MaxTs should remain above
normal through this period as the high remains overhead.

As mentioned above, with the high parked right over us, and
unfavorable flow aloft preventing increased moisture flux,
conditions are expected to remain mostly dry. Best chances
rainfall will remain over Tucson`s area, where slightly better
moisture profiles will be present. There are hints at that towards
the weekend, we could see some slightly better moisture that
could help induce some terrain influenced convection, but plenty
of uncertainty remains so chances remain fairly low (20-30%) at
this time. As for lower desert areas, moisture looks to remain too
minimal to get any activity by the weekend so it appears that any
more rainfall will have to wait at least another week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No significant weather impacts are expected, with mostly clear
skies. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies, with west
winds already developing this morning. Wind speeds around 10 kts
with occasional 15-20 kt gusts will be common through this
afternoon. Light easterlies return around and slightly after
midnight tonight. Similar wind patterns are expected Monday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No significant weather impacts are expected, with clear skies.
Winds will favor south to southeast during the daytime hours and
west to southwest winds during the evening and overnight hours.
Wind speeds will mostly remain at or below 10 kts. A period of
occasional gusty sundowner winds up to 20-25 kts is anticipated
at KIPL this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above-normal temperatures will prevail over the next several
days, with lower desert highs approaching 110 degrees by this
afternoon. MinRHs values over the next several days will range
around 10-15%, with lower values closer to 5-10% today across the
deserts of California. MaxRH values are not expected to offer much
relief as readings near 20-45% can be expected. Winds will follow
familiar diurnal trends, with typical afternoon breeziness.
Minimal chances for rainfall exist across the region through the
week, with CWR <10% through Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for AZZ530>533-535-536.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
     for AZZ534-537>540-542>544-546-548-550-551-553>555-559.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for AZZ541-545-547-549-552-556-560>562.

CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for CAZ560>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...RW